Science Links - 7/17/15

The theme of today's science links is frauds and lies.

Article: Why are greens so keen to destroy the world’s wildlife?

When Professor David MacKay stepp ed down as chief scientific adviser to the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc) last year, he produced a report comparing the environmental impact of a fracking site to that of wind farms. Over 25 years, he calculated, a single “shale gas pad” covering five acres, with a drilling rig 85ft high (only needed for less than a year), would produce as much energy as 87 giant wind turbines, covering 5.6 square miles and visible up to 20 miles away. Yet, to the greenies, the first of these, capable of producing energy whenever needed, without a penny of subsidy, is anathema; while the second, producing electricity very unreliably in return for millions of pounds in subsidies, fills them with rapture

Additional antienvironment environmentalism

1) windmills destroying birds and bats
2) biomass to biomass fuels causing deforestation
3) hydroelectric power plants in the Amazon destroying rain forests.

Article: The Climate Wars’ Damage to Science

A history of the take over of climate science, greens/environmentalists, the media, and bureaucrats by catastrophic anthropogenic global warming activists

The organisations that did the most exaggeration trousered the most money.

Garth Paltridge, distinguished Australian climate scientist:

We have at least to consider the possibility that the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem—or, what is much the same thing, of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problem—in its effort to promote the cause. It is a particularly nasty trap in the context of science, because it risks destroying, perhaps for centuries to come, the unique and hard-won reputation for honesty which is the basis for society’s respect for scientific endeavour.

Long and well worth the read.

Article: Nature Rebounds – the world is getting better, not worse

References a deep, and long, study by one of the founders of the IPCC. I did not read the study.

Article: Study claims 1 in 4 cancer research papers contains faked data

Scientists, desperate for grant money, puffs up research.

Science Links - 7/16/15

Article: Natural contaminants, arsenic and uranium, in one-fifth of California's groundwater

Natural contaminants are more prevalent than human-made contaminants in California groundwater used for public supply, is the conclusion of a decade-long study by U.S. Geological Survey scientists. The study evaluated the quality of nearly all of the groundwater used for public supply in California and is the most comprehensive assessment of groundwater in any state to date. Groundwater provides about one-third of California's drinking supply in a typical year, but more during drought conditions.

There is more uranium and arsenic in the water supplies than nitrates (from fertilizers) and various organics.

Article: Old astronomic riddle on the way to be solved: Absorption of starlight in space

The absorption is due to a complex carbon molecule nicknamed, "buckyballs."

Scientists were able to identify for the first time a molecule responsible for the absorption of starlight in space: the positively charged Buckminsterfullerene, or so-called football molecule.

Article: Climate Scientists’ Road to Hell

Amusing, but 3 years old.

Article: Better chocolate with microbes: Same yeast used in beer, wine and bread

Best flavor from the common bread yeast.

Did you know that chocolate is fermented? So is coffee.

Article: New Horizons: Images reveal ice mountains on Pluto

Ice mountains 10000 ft (slightly less than 2 miles) high.

And no impact craters which implies enough geologic activity to smooth out the surface.

Science Links: The Pope and the Climate

Article: What Pope Francis should do to really help the poor: Bjorn Lomborg

Takeaway: Global warming will effect the poor most. However, the advocated policies to stop global warming will further impoverish the poor "first and foremost."

Article: Leaked Laudato Lamented

Catholic magazine discussing the Pope's stance on global warming.

Takeaway: The encyclical is great on the theology. Lousy on the science.

Article: Who Pays For Climate Regulation?

Hat tip to Wattsupwiththat: Stanford research finds climate change regulation burden heaviest on poor

Takeaway: the two titles say it all.

Article:  Thoughts on the papal encyclical on environment

Takeaway: Well balanced looked at the Encyclical, based on the actual document, rather than "reports." The encyclical still invokes the long-discredited "consensus."

However, it places the enviroment in a moral context that both skeptics and believers in global warming would do well to ponder.

Article: Is The Catholic Church Burned By The Sun Again?

Takeaway: a point-by-point rebuttal of the "climate science" of the Pope's encyclical.

My take on all of this. When the Pope speaks on moral and theological issues, he speaks clearly. And what he says should challenge everyone. However, he muddies the waters of that clarity with the "mud" of bad science.

It is also not as "anti-business" and "anti-capitalist" as some "reports" have made it out to be. However, it is obvious that the Pope is more knowledgable about Marxist and Fascist critiques of free-market economies than he is about free-market economies.

Archaeology Links - 10/13/14

Article: Large mosaic in ancient tomb uncovered in Greece

Another article about the massive tomb being excavated in Greece.

There is still no word on who is buried there.

The mosaic, 3 meters (10 feet) long and 4.5 meters (15 feet) wide, depicts a horseman with a laurel wreath driving a chariot drawn by two horses and preceded by the god Hermes. According to a Culture Ministry announcement on Sunday, Hermes is depicted here as the conductor of souls to the afterlife.

The mosaic is made up of pebbles in many colors: white, black, gray, blue, red and yellow. 

Article: Britain to hunt for King Harold's body to test theory about his death

King Harold II, the last Anglo-Saxon king of England, has long been thought to have been killed at the Battle of Hastings in 1066. But British archaeologists are to test a theory he survived on the anniversary of the famous battle this Tuesday.

But Peter Burke, an amateur historian in southern England, has said an alternative version of events exists in a 12th century document called Vita Harold, which is housed in the British Library.

Burke has suggested Harold may have lived to fight another day and survived as a hermit for a further 40 years. 

"We have the Norman story put through the Bayeux Tapestry – the English story is a different one," Burke told The Independent on Sunday newspaper.

We know that the victors write history. Alfred being dead is a story that would serve the French victors. On the other hand, the story of brave Alfred, living in exile, ready to return when called for would serve the defeated Anglo-Saxons.

So who knows? 

Article: 1000-year old Viking treasure hoard found in Scotland

A hoard of Viking gold and silver artifacts dating back over 1,000 years has been discovered by a treasure hunter with a metal detector in Scotland, in a find hailed by experts as one of the country's most significant. 

Derek McLennan, a retired businessman, uncovered the 100 items in a field in Dumfriesshire, southwest Scotland, in September. 

Amongst the objects is a solid silver cross thought to date from the 9th or 10th century, a silver pot of west European origin, which is likely to have already been 100 years old when it was buried and several gold objects.

Science Links: 10/2/14 [Updated and bumped]

Article: 'Strikingly Geometric' Shapes Hidden on Moon's Surface

A new lunar probe has detected filled-in rift valleys on the moon.

Rifting was first discovered on Earth. Once it was studied and explained, examples on Mars and Venus became obvious.

The Moon, however, was heavily bombarded during its early history. This covered up the more "rectangular" shape of the rifting. The bombardment make the area appear more circular, as if a large asteroid had caused it.

The conclusion would be that some of plate tectonics happened all four of these.

Article: Walrus mass on Alaska beach - in pictures

Pacific walrus unable to find sea ice on which to rest in Arctic waters are coming ashore in record numbers on a beach in north-west Alaska. Females give birth on sea ice and the animals use it as a diving platform to reach snails, clams and worms on the shallow continental shelf, but climate change means there is ever less available.

Cool photos; stupid comment.

Arctic sea ice is up, overall. Any lack of it in the Alaskan area is a local phenomenon due to the way sea ice shifts around the Arctic Ocean.

Update: Walrus Beach Party 

Confirmation of my assumption above. These mass haul-outs are common, and have occurred whether or not there is sea ice in the vicinity or not. Another hysterical over-reaction by ignorant people to a normal event.

Article: Your nose knows death is imminent: Losing the sense of smell predicts death within five years, according to new research

The title is wrong. In elderly people, about 40% of the people who had a measurable loss of the sense of smell died within 5 years. So, no, "your nose does [not] know" anything.

This compares to about 10% of those with a healthy sense of smell.

Senescence: "the gradual deterioration that occurs with age." The sense of smell is probably a proxy for that general deterioration.

And definitely warrants further study.

Article: What causes paranoia, hallucinations and grandiose ideas?

Led by Dr Angelica Ronald at Birkbeck, University of London, the team analysed data on almost 5,000 pairs of 16-year-old twins. This is the classical twin design, a standard method for gauging the relative influence of genes and environment.
Heritability for paranoia was 50%; for grandiosity it was 44%; while for hallucinations it was 15% for males and 32% for females. This doesn’t mean, incidentally, that 50% of an individual’s paranoia is the result of their genes. The concept of “heritability” tells us that 50% of the differences in levels of paranoia across the population may be genetic in origin. 

That would mean that 50% of that difference is environmental (or "nurture") in origin.

The individual symptoms do not necessarily co-occur with one another.

However, these are generally symptoms of schizophrenia, and "twin studies of those diagnosed with schizophrenia typically report much higher rates of heritability for the disorder…."

Despite the authors's conclusions about the non-inheritability of schizophrenia, it would appear that having all the symptoms, at once, may be the result of having all the genes for the symptoms and therefore, increase the likelihood for full-blown schizophrenia.

They are definitely on the side of redefining schizophrenia, so there may be a bias here against finding for a genetic cause of it.

Article: Teacher fired after lab accident at school burns 4

A chemistry teacher has been fired after four students were burned, one seriously, when a fire erupted in a Denver high school chemistry laboratory while the teacher was conducting a demonstration with methanol, a school spokeswoman said Tuesday.

Some links about the demonstration:

A warning

Flynn Scientific video about doing it safely.

Given what the demonstrator says, it is obvious what can go wrong.

And finally, one version of the demonstration

Nobel Prizes: 2014

First is the prize in physics.
Article: Nobel Prize for physics goes to inventors of low-energy LED light

Three researchers figured out how to make a blue LED. Red and green LED's have been around for a while. However, to make white light, a blue LED was needed.

Their discovery allowed the manufacture of true white LED bulbs producing a long-lasting and efficient light bulb. They are more expensive than the incandescent bulbs that they are replacing.

This Nobel prize is unusual, because it is in a practical, rather than a theoretical, field.

Then, the prize in medicine (3 takes on the prize)
Article: Nobel Prize for medicine goes to discoverers of brain’s 'inner GPS'

John Stein, an emeritus professor of physiology at Oxford said that, as with so many Nobel Prize winners, the scientists' discovery was at first ridiculed and dismissed, only later to get the recognition it warrants.

Other takes on the same prize-winning research.
Article: Nobel discovery opens window onto Alzheimer's disease

Article: Norwegian couple joins elite few awarded Nobel Prize together

Finally, the prize in chemistry.
Article: Nobel Prize for seeing how life works at molecular level

Scientists, who have been looking down microscopes since the 17th century, had long thought there was a limit to what could be seen. In 1873, Ernst Abbe stipulated that resolution could never be better than 0.2 micrometers, or around 500 times smaller than the width of a human hair.

But the three Nobel winners bypassed this limit by tagging objects with fluorescent markers and scanning them to build up a far more detailed images. Today, such "nanoscopy" is used widely to visualize the internal molecular machinery of cells.

Modern nanoscale microscopes can follow protein interactions involved in diseases like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and cancer, or watch the transcription and translation of DNA to make proteins, or track the development of fertilized eggs as they divide and become embryos.

And now, Nobel laureates using their prestige for (mostly) political purposes. 
Article: Nobel laureates call for a revolutionary shift in how humans use resources

Every few years, the neo-Malthusians announce that the "end is near." It used to be religious cults that did this.

Science Links for 9/16/14 - Archeology

Article: Archaeologists discover 'long-lost' Roman fort

This was one of the major forts guarding the "backbone" of the Roman border in Germany.

The fort is apparently from the late first century C.E., and roughly 500 Roman soldiers were stationed there between 70 and 120 C.E.

Archaeologists discovered two V-shaped ditches and the post holes from a defensive tower at the site. The researchers suspect the finds were greater than at other sites because the Roman troops filled the ditches and dismantled the fort when they abandoned it. The Gernsheim fort allowed the Romans to control large areas east of the Rhine in the late first century C.E.

Burying the fort both hid it and allowed for its preservation.

Article: Massive 5,000-Year-Old Stone Monument Revealed in Israel

Over 150 yards long, and located near the Sea of Galilee.

It is "pre-Israel" in date, so would belong to peoples no one knows much about. It appears to be associated with a nearby ancient town.

The purpose of the structure is unknown; it was too far from the town to be a defensive wall.

The structure's crescent shape stood out in the landscape, Wachtel told Live Science in an email. The shape may have had symbolic importance, as the lunar crescent is a symbol of an ancient Mesopotamian moon god named Sin, Wachtel said.

Science LInks - 9/9/14 - Archeology

Article: Chinese boy discovers 3,000-year-old sword in a river

Archaeologists speculated that the sword, which is roughly 10 inches long, comes from either the Shang or Zhou dynasties. The bureau suggested that the sword was a "status symbol of a civil official" and not a weapon used for fighting.

Archeologists are now planning a dig at the site.

Article: 3,000-Year-Old Golden Bowl Hides a Grisly Archaeological Tale

The golden bowl was found in an excavation in 1958 at a site in Iran. Further investigations make it appear as though looted along with several other valuable objects by several soldiers, found dead near by. The soldiers were killed, and buried, when the roof collapsed on them.

Two objects, thousands of miles apart, both from about the same era.

Article: Fever mounts as stunning statues found at ancient Greek tomb

A stunning discovery in the age of twitter and the 24/7 news cycle. Long ago (20 years or more) a major discovery would be investigated, then published.

Today, it can be followed on a near daily basis. This is so cool.

Speculation is mounting that the tomb, which dates from Alexander's lifetime (356-323BC), may be untouched, with its treasures intact. 

Theories abound about who could be buried in the tumulus tomb, ranging from Alexander's Bactrian wife Roxane, to his mother Olympias or one of his generals. 

Experts say the chances of Alexander himself being buried there are small, however. 

After his death at 32 in Babylon, the most celebrated conquerer of the ancient world is believed to have been buried in Alexandria, the Egyptian city he founded -- although no grave has ever been found there.

Science Links - 9/5/14 - Archeology [updated 9/6]

Update: Buried Treasure: 1,900-Year-Old Roman Jewelry Unearthed

Who doesn't love a buried treasure story?

A small pit filled with ancient Roman jewelry that dates back nearly 2,000 years to a violent riot that occurred around A.D. 61 was unearthed beneath a London-area department store, according to a British archaeology organization. 

An archaeologist with the Colchester Archaeological Trust, a registered charity devoted to promoting archaeology in the area, discovered the buried treasure during an excavation beneath the Williams & Griffin department store in the town center.

Although, the context of this one makes it a sad story. It was not merely a "violent riot" but full rebellion against the Roman government resulting in the burning of three towns.

qThe haul includes three gold armlets, two silver bracelets, a silver chain necklace, a small bag of coins, a "substantial" silver armlet and a small jewelry box with four gold rings and two sets of gold earrings. 

Article: Mosaic Floor Revealed at Alexander the Great-Era Tomb

Largest tomb of this period ever found in Greece. Absolutely no mention of any speculation about whose tomb. An omission I find fascinating, especially since no one knows where Alexander the Great is buried.

Mosaic flooring, red and black paint on the walls, statues of sphinxes, blue frescos.

Details to follow.

Article: 'Last Supper' Papyrus May Be One of Oldest Christian Charms

The papyrus is from Egypt, but written in Greek.

A researcher realized that a 1500-year-old piece of papyrus, previously known showed signs of being folded. The papyrus has writing that paraphrases part of Psalm 78 and the Last Supper. He hypothesized that it was folded in order to place into an amulet and worn as a magical protection for a Christian.

I would be more accepting of this as a charm and as a belief in some sort of Christianized pagan magic if they didn't claim that wearing a cross today is also Christian magic, and worn as protection. I think some ignorant intellectual has watched too many vampire movies and not read enough about basic Christian beliefs.

"To this day, Christians use passages from the Bible as protective charms so our amulet marks the start of an important trend in Christianity."

The actual quote:

"Fear you all who rule over the earth.
Know you nations and peoples that Christ is our God.
For he spoke and they came to being, he commanded and they were created; he put everything under our feet and delivered us from the wish of our enemies.
Our God prepared a sacred table in the desert for the people and gave manna of the new covenant to eat, the Lord's immortal body and the blood of Christ poured for us in remission of sins."

The discovery, which Mazza presented this week at an international conference on papyri at the university's research institute, reveals that Christians adopted an ancient Egyptian practice of wearing such charms to ward off danger.

"This practice is not very far from nowadays use to wear necklaces with the cross or images of Jesus, Mary, or the saints, for protection," Mazza said. "In many Catholic churches nowadays believers are given holy pictures of the saints with a prayer on the back that you can bring along again for protection."

Article: Ancient metal workers were not slaves but highly regarded craftsmen

Previous site interpretation: harsh conditions, high and thick wall surrounding the mine and refinery, fiery furnaces. It must about slaves!

Copper production is a complex operation requiring many levels of expertise. Ancient mine workers at Timna may have indeed been slaves or prisoners, because theirs was a simple task performed under severe conditions. However, the act of smelting, turning stone into metal, required an enormous amount of skill and leadership. 

The craftsmen ate meat and fish (a rarity). Copper was hard to refine (for the time) and very valuable (this is the height of the Copper Age, when most weapons were fashioned from copper).

The thick walls are now reinterpreted to being defensive in use: protecting the valuable craftsmen, their refinery and their refined copper.

The bias towards believing that it was all about slavery is interesting and says something about those archeologists that did the original work.

The author does not include who the people were.

Science Links 8/30/14

Article: Yellowstone Supervolcano Eruption would be Large, but not as Catastrophic as previously thought

Researchers have revealed after creating a new computer simulation called Ash3D at the US Geological Survey (USGS) that the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would spew ash several feet thick in some areas. However, it is also true that the eruption will not be as catastrophic as being claimed by some previous reports.
"It's a crazy thing to think about because none of us have ever seen an eruption like Yellowstone. It would be two or three orders of magnitude more ash than we've been able to observe", said study lead author Larry Mastin, a USGS hydrologist, in a statement reported by Inquisitr.

The blast would be big and ash will engulf the states surrounding Yellowstone National Park.

Article: New Study Offers Clues to Swift Arctic Extinction

Seven hundred years ago, the Dorset people disappeared from the Arctic. The last of the Paleo-Eskimos, the Dorset had dominated eastern Canada and Greenland for centuries, hunting seal and walrus through holes in the ice and practicing shamanistic rituals with ornate carvings and masks.

They lived there for more than 4,000 years, then disappeared in a matter of decades.

The Dorset people were a genetically distinct group, and they were different from the modern Inuit people.

Usually, when one group displaces another, one group assimilates the other. The first group leaves genetic evidence in the other group.

It is possible that the Inuit themselves wiped out the Dorset people. The article does not talk about any overlap between the two peoples.

Article: Forum: Against Empathy

A long article about empathy focused on emotional empathy. The author is writing a book against empathy, especially as a guide to policy.

It refers to the process of experiencing the world as others do, or at least as you think they do. To empathize with someone is to put yourself in her shoes, to feel her pain. 

Empathy is a one-on-one connection.

Most people see the benefits of empathy as akin to the evils of racism: too obvious to require justification. I think this is a mistake. I have argued elsewhere that certain features of empathy make it a poor guide to social policy. Empathy is biased; we are more prone to feel empathy for attractive people and for those who look like us or share our ethnic or national background. And empathy is narrow; it connects us to particular individuals, real or imagined, but is insensitive to numerical differences and statistical data. 

Empathy is too narrow, focusing on one person at a time.

In light of these features, our public decisions will be fairer and more moral once we put empathy aside. Our policies are improved when we appreciate that a hundred deaths are worse than one, even if we know the name of the one, and when we acknowledge that the life of someone in a faraway country is worth as much as the life a neighbor, even if our emotions pull us in a different direction. Without empathy, we are better able to grasp the importance of vaccinating children and responding to climate change. These acts impose costs on real people in the here and now for the sake of abstract future benefits, so tackling them may require overriding empathetic responses that favor the comfort and well being of individuals today. 

Effective social policy requires doing things that can be painful to others. The actual administration of a vaccine is painful, and side effects can be annoying to painful. If one operates only on emotional empathy, it would be hard to vaccinate one's child. Or have a life-saving operation done on the same child.

Science Links for 8/22/14: Breakfast, Stars, and Alcohol

Article: Is Breakfast Overrated?

Skipping breakfast had no effect on weight, but did seem to have an effect on activity level. People who skipped breakfast were more sluggish, but then, neither did they overeat later to compensate.

For now, the slightly unsatisfying takeaway from the new science would seem to be that if you like breakfast, fine; but if not, don’t sweat it. “I almost never have breakfast,” Dr. Betts said. “That was part of my motivation for conducting this research, as everybody was always telling me off and saying I should know better.” Based on the results of these studies, he said his habits won’t change.

Article: Traces of One of Universe's First Stars Detected

The first stars formed would have been made entirely from the hydrogen and helium left over from the big bang. There would have had a range of sizes from the 1 solar mass up to 100 solar masses or more.

When they went supernova they would create and scatter other elements into space.

The second generation of stars [were] formed from the material forged in the heart of the first generation. The interior of SDS J0018-0939, a star in the Milky Way's halo, reveals information about the makeup of the first stars in the universe.

Article: The Truth We Won’t Admit: Drinking Is Healthy

In the early 1800's, cheap distilled spirits like rum and gin became widely available. This led to a lot of drunkenness in the "lower orders." A moral panic ensued. And for the first time in 1800 years the Bible was found to endorse total abstinence from drinking anything with alcohol in it. While the Bible frequently denounced drunkenness, it evidences no support for total abstinence.

However, Methodists and Baptists adopted this doctrine, as did a number of other conservative denominations. However, prohibition was also a progressive cause, something often conveniently forgotten. The moral panic reached a height in Prohibition.

The progressives ran away from prohibition when it failed, but even today many conservative denominations reject any drinking of alcohol. The ideas engrained by the prohibitionists, that alcohol is bad for you, are also still found in the medical community (many of whom drink alcohol on the their own).

The idea, I would rudely guess, is that the elites are still afraid of the lower orders getting out of control. Hence high "sin" taxes on alcohol (about 80% of the cost of a bottle of liquor goes to some sort of taxes, somewhat less so for beer and wine).

Given the multitude of studies of the effects of alcohol on mortality (since heart disease is the leading killer of men and women, drinking reduces overall mortality significantly), meta-analyses combining the results of the best-designed such studies can be generated. In 2006, the Archives of Internal Medicine, an American Medical Association journal, published an analysis based on 34 well-designed prospective studies—that is, research which follows subjects for years, even decades. This meta-analysis, incorporating a million subjects, found that “1 to 2 drinks per day for women and 2 to 4 drinks per day for men are inversely associated with total mortality.”

So the more you drink—up to two drinks a day for woman, and four for men—the less likely you are to die. You may have heard that before, and you may have heard it doubted. But the consensus of the science is overwhelming: It is true.

Although I dispute many of the caveats offered against the life-saving benefits of alcohol, I will endorse two. First, these outcome data do not apply to women with the “breast-cancer gene” mutations (BRCA 1 or 2) or a first-degree (mother, sister) relation who has had breast cancer, for whom alcohol consumption is far riskier. Second, drinking 10 drinks Friday and Saturday nights does not convey the benefits of two or three drinks daily, even though your weekly totals would be the same

Global warming - Three links.

The top two stories have some good research. However, they are either poorly written or deliberately deceptive on someone's part.  The third one is a fun read, but hyperbolic.

Article: Is the SUN driving climate change? Solar activity - 'and not just humans' - could be increasing global warming, study claims

I think that the general conclusion that the solar activity drives some climate change is obvious. The problem with this specific article is how badly it is written. For example, the following quote can be interpreted to say that ALL the climate change we have seen in the last century is driven solely by the sun, which is not what I think they found.

Dr Raimund Muscheler, lecturer in Quaternary Geology at Lund University and co-author of the study, told MailOnline that solar activity in the modern day was causing about 0.1 degrees of warming in the 11-year solar cycle.

'Bit it's quite debated how much it really contributed in the last 100 years, since solar activity increased a bit,' Dr Muscheler says.

'The long trend is debated, but most people don't think it's much more than 0.1 degrees.'

However, he warned that the sun was not the only factor in causing climate change.

"About 0.1 degrees of warming in the 11-year solar cycle." At nine cycles per century, that equals 0.9 degrees of warming per century, or almost all of the observed warming over the last century.

What I think that they mean is that 0.1 degree of the 1.0 degree of warming seen in the last century is due to increased solar activity.

'The study shows an unexpected link between solar activity and climate change,' Dr Muscheler said in a press release.

'It shows both that changes in solar activity are nothing new and that solar activity influences the climate, especially on a regional level.

"Unexpected?" I hope this is a misquote, because it would be ludicrous to say that solar activity does not have link to climate. Either that, or they are saying that the link that they did find was an unexpected link over and above the expected link. Again, poorly written.  

'The study also shows that the various solar processes need to be included in climate models in order to better predict future global and regional climate change.'

In other words, the existing models are over-simplified and this missing factor is one reason why they have failed to predict "global and regional climate change." So, yes, I agree.

Article: Why global warming is taking a break

The average temperature on Earth has barely risen over the past 16 years. ETH researchers have now found out why. And they believe that global warming is likely to continue again soon.

Global warming is currently taking a break: whereas global temperatures rose drastically into the late 1990s, the global average temperature has risen only slightly since 1998 – surprising, considering scientific climate models predicted considerable warming due to rising greenhouse gas emissions.

The models are based in hypotheses about how the atmosphere works, and, specifically, how the increasing levels of CO2 should increase global temperatures. The models have failed to correctly predict both the amounts of warming and how the atmosphere actually warms. These hypotheses have now been falsified, they are no longer valid, they are ex-hypotheses. [Insert Monty Pythonesque, dead parrot routine joke, here.] They need to be modified until they can reflect actual atmospheric conditions.

Two reasons are given for this failure.

#1 El Niño warmed the Earth

One of the important reasons is natural climate fluctuations, of which the weather phenomena El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific are the most important and well known. "1998 was a strong El Niño year, which is why it was so warm that year," says Knutti. In contrast, the counter-phenomenon La Niña has made the past few years cooler than they would otherwise have been.

So, no warming over the last 16 years. Last big warming event was the 1998 El Nino. Earth warms when there is an El Nino event. Therefore, I predict that no El Nino events have occurred since 1998, since these events cause warming. What? There have been El Nino events since 1998? Impossible!

Sorry, this is simply bad reasoning, or a poorly written article (see above). Maybe they are claiming that large La Nina events have countered small El Nino events, but that claim is not made, and I have not seen anyone make that claim.

#2 Longer solar cycles

According to the study, the second important reason for the warming hiatus is that solar irradiance has been weaker than predicted in the past few years. This is because the identified fluctuations in the intensity of solar irradiance are unusual at present: whereas the so-called sunspot cycles each lasted eleven years in the past, for unknown reasons the last period of weak solar irradiance lasted 13 years.

So, changes in solar activity responsible for changes in the climate? I have no issue with that conclusion.

"For unknown reasons." Yes, the global warming/climate change models have failed because they are over-simplified. Again, I agree.

Another reason is given for the hiatus:

Incomplete measured data

The discrepancy between the climate models and measured data over the past 16 years cannot solely be attributed to the fact that these models predict too much warming, says Knutti.

Why not? The models have predicted too much warming. That is why they failed. They were over-simplified. Fix them.

According to Knutti, measured data is likely to be too low, since the global average temperature is only estimated using values obtained from weather stations on the ground, and these do not exist everywhere on Earth. From satellite data, for example, scientists know that the Arctic region in particular has become warmer over the past years, but because there are no weather stations in that area, there are measurements that show strong upward fluctuations. As a result, the specified average temperature is too low.

Really? The same satellite data that they claim is showing increased warming in the polar regions is also showing less warming, overall. It is also showing less warming than the ground based weather station data shows. So global warming is not only lower than the models predict, but also lower than the weather station data is showing. So ALL of the actual data is wrong compared to what?

Last year, British and Canadian researchers proposed an alternative temperature curve with higher values, in which they incorporated estimated temperatures from satellite data for regions with no weather stations. If the model data is corrected downwards, as suggested by the ETH researchers, and the measurement data is corrected upwards, as suggested by the British and Canadian researchers, then the model and actual observations are very similar.

Ah, so you correct the best data there is, from the NASA satellites, by correcting it upwards, "then the model and 'actual observations' are very similar."

Of course.

Despite the warming hiatus, Knutti is convinced there is no reason to doubt either the existing calculations for the climate activity of greenhouse gases or the latest climate models. "Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained."

1. "No reason to doubt." The logical fallacy here is proof by assertion. It is coupled with an appeal to authority by the study's author. That is, he is appealing to his own authority. 

2. "Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained." Yes, but he failed to do that.

Article: Mann v Steyn: If This Trial Ever Goes Ahead Global Warming Is Toast

Compared to the other articles, this one is dessert; just plain fun to read.

Michael Mann, global warming scientist, is suing Mark Steyn and others for slander because of comments published in National Review Online.

I think the claim ("global warming is toast") is hyperbole. Michael Mann is refusing to be deposed. This refusal, alone, could force the judge to throw out his suit, or force the judge to give summary judgment. As the person who brought the suit, he has to answer questions under oath.

It is obvious that Michael Mann is hiding something. It is already known that the algorithms that produced the infamous "hockey stick" could generate a hockey stick diagram out of telephone numbers. (I exaggerate, but barely.) The hockey stick model of global warming during the Holocene has been repudiated by the most recent IPCC report, and other global warming scientists have distanced themselves from it.

Not noted here, but an "amici" brief has been filed in support of Mark Steyn by the ACLU and a large number of other organizations left, right, and center. They may not like Steyn's opinions, but they recognize that Mann's lawsuit, if successful, would create a huge chill in first amendment rights.

Microevolution: Pygmies, butterflies, and Tibetans

Three articles about microevolution. That is, the rapid spread of a change in genes through a population because that change confers an advantage to those having the gene.

Article: Pygmy phenotype developed many times, adaptive to rainforest

The small body size associated with the pygmy phenotype is probably a selective adaptation for rainforest hunter-gatherers, according to an international team of researchers. But all African pygmy phenotypes do not have the same genetic underpinning, suggesting a more recent adaptation than previously thought.

Genetic mutations occur in populations all the time. If they have a negative impact on the individual, they tend to disappear from the population quickly. If they have no noticeable impact for the good or bad, they might disappear as well, although more slowly. Mutations which have positive influence on individuals, making them more fit for their environment, tend to spread through the population.

Article: Butterflies' evolutionary responses to warmer temperatures may compromise their ability to adapt to future climate change

Members of the brown argus butterfly species that moved north in response to recent climate change have evolved a narrower diet dependent on wild Geranium plants, researchers report. However, butterflies that did not move north have more diverse diets, including plants such as Rockrose that are abundant in southern parts of the UK.

Article: 8,000-year-old mutation key to human life at high altitudes: Study identifies genetic basis for Tibetan adaptation

In an environment where others struggle to survive, Tibetans thrive in the thin air of the Tibetan Plateau, with an average elevation of 14,800 feet. A new study is the first to find a genetic cause for the adaptation and demonstrate how it contributes to the Tibetans’ ability to live in low oxygen conditions.

About 8,000 years ago, the gene EGLN1 changed by a single DNA base pair. Today, a relatively short time later on the scale of human history, 88% of Tibetans have the genetic variation, and it is virtually absent from closely related lowland Asians. The findings indicate the genetic variation endows its carriers with an advantage.

Science Links for 8/15/2014

Article: Huge asteroid that 'could end human life' defying gravity as it moves towards Earth, scientists say

It "defies gravity" by rotating on its axis so fast that its surface at its equator actually experiences "negative gravity."

Asteroids are a collection of dust and rubble. Normally, they are held together held together by gravity, but this one is rotating so fast that it is held together by van der Waal's force. [A weak force that is due to attraction between molecules. It is related to hydrogen bonding.]

Article: Who's your mummy? Egyptian mummification older than was thought

Researchers on Wednesday said a form of mummification was being carried out there more than six thousand years ago, much earlier than previously thought. They said embalming substances contained in funerary textiles from the oldest-known Egyptian cemeteries showed mummy-making from as early as about 4300 BC.

There is evidence of mummification involving remains from around 2600 BC of Queen Hetepheres, mother of Khufu, the pharaoh who commissioned the Great Pyramid at Giza outside Cairo. There also is evidence of linen that contained resin being used to wrap bodies around 2800 BC.

The researchers were amazed to find that the plant, animal and mineral components used in preparing the mummies at the cemeteries in Mostagedda in central Egypt were essentially the same embalming "recipe" used thousands of years later at the pinnacle of the ancient Egyptian civilization.

Article: Little penguins forage together: 40% of studied penguins synchronized underwater movements while foraging

Olympic synchronized swimming for penguins!

Little penguins are the smallest penguin species and they live exclusively in southern Australia, New Zealand, and the Chatham Islands, but spend most of their lives at sea in search of food. Not much is known about group foraging behavior in seabirds due to the difficulty in observing their remote feeding grounds.

The authors GPS devices to track the little penguins.

The authors found that ~ 70% of little penguins' foraging tracks were in association with other penguins, ~ 50% of individuals dove while associating with other penguins, and ~ 40% exhibited synchronous diving. These behaviors suggest little penguins forage in groups, may synchronize their underwater movements, and potentially cooperate to concentrate their small-schooling prey.

Article: Ebola outbreak: the vaccine and 'secret serum' explained

Vaccines exist, but have not been tested on humans. They seem to give protection to monkeys. Because Ebola outbreaks are usually localized and limited. Vaccination will never be wide-spread (like polio or smallpox), and mostly given to health workers and the like.

This drug [the "secret serum'"] gives you antibodies directly, rather than waiting two to three weeks after vaccination for the antibodies to work. It could be used for treatment whereas a vaccine is more likely to be used for prevention.

Article: Competition for ecological niches limits evolution of new species

The article is worth skimming just for pictures of the birds.

Most new species are thought to arise in a three step process: First, a species expands its range. Then a barrier, such as a geographic event, separates the species into distinct populations. Last, development of the inability to interbreed -- reproductive isolation -- finalizes the speciation process. As this cycle repeats, it gives rise to a vast diversity of plant and animal species. 

In this study, Professor Price, Dr Mohan and their colleagues used several approaches to examine how geographic differences affect speciation by testing the niche-filling model: first, they asked whether the geography of the eastern Himalayas provided a greater number and diversity of niches that songbirds could occupy and adapt to. Second, they examined whether the rate of oscine speciation changed over time. Third, they investigated the diversity and abundance of resources available in different ecological niches.

These findings suggest that speciation and geography are intimately connected in the evolutionary history of the Himalayan songbird assemblage: initially, numerous morphological differences in feeding method and body size appear early in their evolutionary history, whereas only later did the fledgling species invade and adapt to available ecological niches at different elevations. Since available niches were filling up as new species moved in, younger and younger songbird species were usually competing for smaller and smaller niches. These findings are all consistent with the niche-filling model.

Two climate change related links from wattsupwiththat.com

Two climate change related links from wattsupwiththat.com

Article #1: Global warming = climate change

This is a long, meaty article covering a lot of global warming/climate change issues. It is well worth a read.

The article reviews the long-term and short term temperature records, the changes in CO2 levels over the last 150 years, and the impact of those changes.

The temperature increasing capacity of atmospheric CO2 is known to diminish as concentrations increase. This diminution effect is probably the reason why there was no runaway greenhouse warming caused by CO2 in earlier eons when CO2 levels were known to be at levels of several thousands ppm.

Both sceptics and Global Warming advocates agree on this. IPCC Published reports, (TAR3), acknowledge that the effective temperature increase caused by growing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere radically diminishes with increasing concentrations. This information is in the IPCC reports. It is well disguised for any lay reader....

About 83% of the effect of increasing CO2 on global warming has already occurred. Even doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (from 400 ppm to 800 ppm) will result in only a relatively small increase in temperature.

Using IPCC's own estimates of "decarbonization," if the US cuts it CO2 emissions in half, it will result in only 0.1 degree C decrease in warming. Using the estimates of "skeptics," it would only reduce warming by 0.017 degrees C.

Article #2: Why ‘Deniers’ are Always Wrong – Models can’t be falsified

Global warming activists have an excuse for everything. When nothing can falsify an hypothesis, it is no longer an hypothesis, but politics or religion.

Science Links, 8/9/14.

Let's clear the tabs and post some links.

Pot and teens, nuclear energy, brain-mimicking chips, animals are sentient(?), and a vaccine study withdrawn.

Article: Pot studies suggest regular use is bad for teen brains

A close look at the under-25 age group shows cognitive decline, poor attention and memory and decreased IQ among those who regularly smoke pot, defined as at least once a week, says Krista Lisdahl, director of the brain-imaging and neuropsychology lab at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

"The adolescent period is a sensitive period of neurodevelopment," she says.

Overall, marijuana use begins in the later teens, around age 16 or 17, peaks in the early 20s and drops off between ages 23 and 25, says Lisdahl.

"Is it a coincidence that use significantly goes down at 25 when the brain is at its full maturation? I don't think so," she says.

Colloquially, this has been know for years. "Why do think that call it 'dope'?" was often used on anti-drug posters for years.

The fact that it hits young people hardest is not a surprise either. Brains begin developing in the womb and do not complete development until adulthood.

There is a lovely piece of circular reasoning exposed in the article. Areas of Montana that voted for the legalization of pot were also the areas with the highest usage of pot. The reasoning?

"People don't perceive it as a very harmful substance, and these community norms translate to teens," she says. "From the teen study, they do reference legalization: 'If it was that bad a drug, they wouldn't be trying to legalize it.' "

Older studies on the effects of pot may be invalid because the levels of the active ingredient is much higher today that it was in past.

Article: Obama’s Energy Guru on America’s Nuclear Future

Interview with Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz.

Discussion of small, modular nuclear plants. Also energy use efficiency, gas, oil, coal, wind and solar. No mention of how much the latter two are directly subsidized.

Article: Brain-inspired chip fits 1m [million] 'neurons' on postage stamp

Each "neuron" is attached to 256 others (in human brains, each neuron is attached to 10,000 each).

Traditional programming will not work, so new programming will have to be done.

These chips, and ones like them, are being used for visual recognition. This is something the brain does very well, but traditional computers do poorly.

Article: Quebec to amend Civil Code to better protect animals from abuse

Once the Civil Code is amended, cats, dogs and other animals will no longer be considered as "personal property" but as living, "sentient" creatures. That is a formula that has already been adopted by several European countries.

Sentient: able to feel, see, hear, smell, or taste. Aware.

No one would argue that animals are able to "fee, see, hear, smell, or taste." However, are animals actually "aware?" So what is the definition of sentient in the legislation?

While recognizing the sentient nature of an animal will not give it the same type of rights as for humans, it will increase the obligations on owners and breeders toward their charges.

Paradis noted that there is a demand for better treatment of animals and it has already been heard in Europe.

"We're seeing how things are evolving in Europe on agricultural farms — there are larger cages for pigs and more space for chickens. If you're not part of this movement, you're going to be excluded."

"We're telling people, 'you can no longer treat animals as inert, property with no emotions,'" she said. "This will force people to be aware, it will force the courts to act. There will be change, that's for sure."

This is not just about pets, this legislation will also cover livestock animals. 

Once the Civil Code has been updated, "Quebec judges will have no choice, in my opinion, to be a bit more coercive," she said.

"Coercive." A nice reminder that government is, by nature, coercive.

Article: Scientists retract narcolepsy study linked to GSK vaccine

...the journal said the researchers, led by Emmanuel Mignot, a professor of psychiatry and behavioural sciences at Stanford University, had asked that the paper be retracted "because they were unable to replicate some of the results reported in the paper".

Research needs to be able to be replicated in order to be considered valid by scientists.

Yet, another study linking a vaccine with a brain disorder that was shown to be invalid.

Archeology Links, 8/5/14

Article: Mystery of China's Terracotta Army solved

The army was covered with a couple layers of lacquer; layers of pigment and binding media went on top of this. The pigment was identified, but the binding media was a mystery, making it difficult to conserve or restore the figures — until now. By comparing "artificially aged" replica samples to the historical samples, researchers pinpointed the binding material as animal glue.

Article: Rare Coins Bear Scars of Ancient Jewish Rebellion

Late Second Temple Period Jewish settlement with a trove of rare bronze coins inside one of its houses has been discovered in Israel.

The 114 bronze coins, which were found inside a ceramic money box and hidden in the corner of a room, date to the fourth year of the Great Revolt of the Jews against the Romans — an uprising that destroyed the Temple on Tisha B'Av about 2,000 years ago....

Stamped on one side of the coins are a chalice and Hebrew inscription that translates to "To the Redemption of Zion." On the other side, the coins bear a motif with a bundle of lulav (palm branch) between two etrogs(a type of yellow citron) and the Hebrew inscription "Year Four," referring to the fourth year of the Great Revolt, around the year 69 or 70.

The room was part of a complex that was built in the first century BC and was destroyed in the 2nd century AD.

Science Links: 8/5/2014

Article: Milky Way Has The Mass Of 800 Billion Suns, Study Finds

The Milky Way has around 200 billion stars. Some larger than our sun, many that are smaller.

It also has a lot of dust, and a halo of dust and hydrogen gas as well. In additionally a large proportion of the mass of the Milky Way appears to be "dark matter." That is, not the usually matter you find in a periodic table, but something else.

Article: Australian Tropical Cyclone activity said to be at the lowest level in modern history

Our CAI for Australia shows that seasonal TC activity is at its lowest level since the year 500AD in Western Australia and 1400AD in Queensland and this decline in activity has been most pronounced since about 1960AD.

Just a reminder, climate change non-scientists like Al Gore insist that global warming is causing more extreme weather like hurricanes. Scientists, like those who helped write the various IPCC reports and like these authors, disagree.

Article: How an empty crisp packet can be used to eavesdrop on conversations

Researchers at MIT engineer a way of extracting sound from "silent" digital videos by studying the vibrations the sound induces in an object. For example, a potato chips bag or the leaf of a plant.

HIV, Malaria, TB, and bubonic plague

Article: HIV global death estimates are wrong

The researcher behind a recent Lancet study says we have overestimated Aids epidemic and underestimated malaria deaths

Malaria, and deaths due to malaria, are down world-wide, but went up in Africa to 2004, then decreased.

TB is also down world-wide.

Article: Was Quarantine The Right Move?

Yesterday, Chinese authorities finally lifted a nine-day quarantine of 151 individuals from the northwestern city of Yumen, instituted after a 38-year-old man died of a bubonic plague infection last week. Entry and exit points were also sealed off, trapping nearly 30,000 residents. In the end, no other cases of bubonic plague developed.

A developing nation, that has been harshly criticized previously for an inadequate response to a disease outbreak, diagnoses a person with the plague. They react swiftly and thoroughly. People in the comfort and protection of the country with the most advanced system of treating and tracking people in world criticize them for taking measures that, for them and for their level of development, work.

In hindsight, and from our exalted viewpoint, it looks like an over-reaction. But if the 151 individuals had had bubonic plague, it might have been ground zero for a world-wide outbreak.

This is not me, hyperventilating: Yersinia pestis and the Plague of Justinian 541—543 AD: a genomic analysis. The article notes that bubonic plague remains a real possibility.