Tuesday, July 14, 2015

IPCC 5 - The Science Is Not Settled

Article: IPCC silently slashes its global warming predictions in the AR5 final draft
Unnoticed, the IPCC has slashed its global-warming predictions, implicitly rejecting the models on which it once so heavily and imprudently relied. In the second draft of the Fifth Assessment Report it had broadly agreed with the models that the world will warm by 0.4 to 1.0 Cº from 2016-2035 against 1986-2005. But in the final draft it quietly cut the 30-year projection to 0.3-0.7 Cº, saying the warming is more likely to be at the lower end of the range [equivalent to about 0.4 Cº over 30 years]. If that rate continued till 2100, global warming this century could be as little as 1.3 Cº 
Official projections of global warming have plummeted since Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies told the U.S. Congress in June 1988 the world would warm by 1 Cº every 20 years till 2050 (Fig. 1), implying 6 Cº to 2100.
In other words:
  • The science is not settled
  • The models have failed, and the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming hypothesis has been falsified. 
  • The IPCC is trying to hide that failure.
  • Their current predictions are well below the 2 decreee C threshold that has been waved around as triggering the end of the world. 
Still too high
Global mean surface temperature anomalies and 0.11 Cº/decade least-squares trend, January 1950 to November 2013 (from HadCRUT4 data).
The problem with this prediction is the starting point, 1950. That year was one of the coldest in the last century. Chosing another starting point, say from the higher temperature years in the 1930's, would decrease the increase even more, perhaps even zeroing out.

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