Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Atmosphere fails to conform to climate models.

Original article: El Niño indicators ease: Issued on Tuesday 29 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Hat tip to: Climate scientists dub this year’s El Niño “a real enigma”
Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.

Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has shifted to El Niño WATCH status. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.
The climate model predicted an El Niño event for 2014. However, the "atmosphere above has largely failed to respond" as predicted, to the warming ocean water.

Climate models, by necessity, must be simplified versions of reality. No model can account for all of the varying factors that influence the real climate. The best that can hoped for is that the necessary and important factors are accounted for. Models can be simplified and work, or they can be oversimplified and fail.

The climate models used are oversimplified. That is, they are so simplified that they are wrong. However, that cannot be admitted, so the atmosphere itself has to fail.
The climate models did not fail. The researchers did not fail. No humans made a mistake. It was the atmosphere failed that us. We need to get a new, simplified atmosphere that matches our climate models.

Side note: I am a "generalizer." When I encounter a specific example of some phenomenon, I try to find an over-arching principle or concept, with examples.

The problem above is part of a general problem that Thomas Sowell noted in his book, "The Vision of the Anointed." He notes that the Left (usually) will claim that there is an issue, a problem, a crisis that needs to be addressed. And they, with their superior education, training, and ideas are just the people to solve that problem.

What happens next is often failure because of what is called the "knowledge problem." No one person or small group of people have sufficient knowledge of the real world to be able to actually plan successfully.

One of the major problems the old USSR had was a central, planned economy, also called a command economy. The government issued "5-year plans," controlling all aspects of production and distribution. It failed, and its failure marked the end of the Cold War.

On the other hand, the people of the US, by buying and selling, making billions of individual decisions, corporately running the economy from the ground up, produced one of the most amazing and dynamic economies in the history of human race.

Were there failures? Yes. No system is perfect. But capitalism beats the competitors silly. [For the sake of forestalling an argument, what we have now is called "crony capitalism." This is the bastard hybrid of Fascism/Socialism and capitalism. And, yes, Fascism is a type of socialism -- Mussolini said so.]

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