Crime and gun control statistics

Article: What’s Happening in One of the Most Progressive Cities in the U.S. Seemingly Undercuts Key Anti-Gun Argument

Article: Detroit Police Chief: Concealed Carry Deters Crime, Saves Lives

The city of Detroit has seen 37 percent fewer robberies in 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Further, there have been 22 percent fewer break-ins of businesses and homes, and 30 percent fewer carjackings.

Detroit Police Chief James Craig says the dramatic drop in these crimes is partly due to more residents arming themselves and fighting back against criminals. The police chief, who has repeatedly argued armed citizens deter crime, said “there’s no question in my mind it has had an effect.”

Article: Murder rate drops as concealed carry permits rise, study claims

The study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans now have permits to carry concealed weapons, up from 4.5 million in 2007. The 146 percent increase has come even as both murder and violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.

Correlation does not equal causation.

The reasoning is that if more people are defending themselves with concealed-carried guns then potential murderers, muggers, burglars, etc., will be more cautious. This assumes that criminals are rational actors, thinking about their own self-interest.

I would assume that some of the decrease is probably due to concealed-carry.

I would like to note that the same correlation/causation argument applies to global warming.

Knowing that carbon dioxide captures heat and transfers it to the atmosphere is analogous to knowing that criminals will be intimidated by concealed-carry. Global warming is correlated to increased carbon dioxide, just as decreased crime is correlated to increased concealed carry.

In both cases, it is reasonable to assume that some of the change is due to the cause. It is unreasonable to assume that ALL of the change, in either case, is due to the cause.

Food for thought:

Since the 1950s, all but two mass shootings have occurred in locations where victims were restricted from carrying weapons for self-defense, his [Eric Dietz, Ph.D., the former director of Homeland Security for the state of Indiana, 22-year Army veteran, and professor at Purdue University] work says. This stunning statistic led the university to question the effectiveness of so-called “gun free zones.”